Preprint: Evidence of Counterterrorism Effectiveness in Theory and Practice

Abstract: Evidence of Counterterrorism Effectiveness in Theory and Practice: Incremental Solutions for a Complex Problem

Determining the effectiveness of counterterrorism measures is a considerable challenge. Despite calls for evidence-based policymaking and improved assessments, counterterrorism research has progressed slowly. Previous discussions about effectiveness have primarily focused on the evidence producers instead of the evidence users. Indeed, there is little discussion about what has been done in practice and how it relates to evidence production. Before proposing preliminary solutions, we highlight several misconceptualizations and misunderstandings contributing to the current disconnect. We suggest a lack of definitional clarity of effectiveness and different beliefs regarding evidentiary standards hinder progress. The paper aims to clarify concepts and offer practical solutions to improve the evidence of counterterrorism effectiveness using examples and lessons learned from government-mandated evaluation practices. Significant benefits could result from (a) better defining and operationalizing counterterrorism goals, (b) improving the causal modeling of counterterrorism measures, and (c) improving the generation of evidence of effectiveness. We conclude that effectiveness assessments need not be overly complex to be impactful. Incremental improvements may enhance the evidence available to determine effectiveness.

Sobol, Ilya and Moncrieff, Michael, Evidence of Counterterrorism Effectiveness in Theory and Practice: Incremental Solutions for a Complex Problem (February 22, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4366895 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4366895